AGP Executive Report

Energy & Drought Response: Serbia’s PM Djuro Macut says the energy situation is “stable” but urges rational electricity and water use as Danube levels stay extremely low; the Emergency Response Headquarters met to coordinate measures, while officials stress Danube navigation work and reduced hydropower output tied to river flow. Power System Pressure: Serbia’s energy minister Dubravka Djedović Handanović reports Iron Gate 1 at about 20% capacity and Iron Gate 2 at 30%, with citizens asked to cut high-consumption devices during peak hours; Serbia’s reserves are supported by pumped-storage at Bajina Bašta. Regional Spillover: The wider Danube drought is pushing Central Europe toward emergency steps, including Hungary’s Paks nuclear plant operating at sharply reduced output and warnings of possible shutdown. Opposition vs. Electoral Roll Data: Dragan Đilas says the Interior Ministry is refusing to provide Freedom and Justice Party access to address data for 133,134 new Serbian citizens, alleging many registrations are false and could fuel election-fraud claims. Kosovo War Crimes: Kosovo authorities investigate a suspected second mass grave near Jabuka, following earlier discoveries of bodies from the 1990s conflict. Diplomacy & Politics: President Aleksandar Vučić thanked Donald Trump for “noticing Serbia,” after the UFC event in Belgrade.

Energy & Power Supply: Serbia’s Danube drought is already hitting electricity output: Djerdap I and II are down to about 20% and 30% capacity, cutting roughly 18% of generation, as no meaningful rainfall has fed the river for weeks. Regional Spillover: The same Danube problem is forcing Hungary to shut Paks nuclear units and consider electricity limits, while Bulgaria’s Kozloduy plant says it can keep running for now despite record-low river levels. Public Safety & Climate Crisis: Greece’s wildfire emergency turned deadly when two firefighting helicopters collided near Athens; one crew died and another was rescued, with investigations underway as new blazes forced evacuations on Kefalonia. Serbia in the Spotlight: UFC Belgrade delivered a home-crowd headline as Uroš Medić knocked out Daniel Rodriguez in 30 seconds, while Dana White signaled interest in signing PFL lightweight Usman Nurmagomedov. Sports Diplomacy: The UFC event also sparked political backlash over a “President Trump, Serbia welcomes you” banner inside the arena.

UFC & Serbian Politics: Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vučić is set to meet UFC boss Dana White ahead of Belgrade’s first UFC Fight Night, with the Serbian MMA chief calling it a long-term partnership signal and noting White’s ties to U.S. politics. Energy & Sanctions: The U.S. OFAC extended NIS’s operating licence until August 28, keeping Serbia’s Russian-owned oil refinery running while sale talks with MOL continue. Kosovo War Crimes: Kosovo’s acting PM Albin Kurti says excavations near Zubin Potok could last months as remains are scattered, renewing calls for Serbia to open archives over missing persons. Border Management: Long queues at the Bajakovo–Batrovci crossing highlight early pain points of the EU’s biometric Entry/Exit System, with drivers reporting up to eight-hour waits. Press Freedom Watch: RSF warns the planned sale of Adria News Network must not lead to political capture of an independent outlet. Regional Climate Pressure: Reuters reports Greece firefighting efforts as wildfires flare again, underscoring Europe-wide heat and drought strain.

UFC in Belgrade Meets Politics: Serbia’s first UFC Fight Night is drawing major attention beyond sport, with President Vučić set to meet Dana White ahead of the card and fans debating everything from Trump banners to how the broadcast handled fighters’ criminal pasts. Energy & Sanctions: The US extended NIS’s operating licence until August 28, keeping Serbia’s only oil refinery running while negotiations with MOL continue. Kosovo Missing Persons: Albin Kurti says excavations near Zubin Potok could last months, urging international pressure on Serbia to open archives in the search for 23 abducted Albanians. EU Border Friction: Ceuta’s crisis continues to spark EU blame games as Spain and EU leaders trade accusations over irregular arrivals and Schengen controls. Press Freedom Watch: RSF warns the planned sale of Adria News Network must not lead to political capture of independent outlets. Climate Pressure on Serbia & Region: Record-low Danube levels from drought and heat are disrupting transport and energy across Central Europe, with Serbia tied into the wider fallout.

Kosovo War Crimes: Human remains tied to a suspected mass grave in northern Kosovo have been found, with DNA testing needed to identify 23 abducted Albanians and calls for Serbia to open wartime police and military archives. Energy & Sanctions: The US extended a sanctions waiver for Serbia’s NIS, letting it keep importing crude and running the refinery until August 28 as talks with Hungary’s MOL continue. Regional Diplomacy: Serbian PM Djuro Macut met North Macedonia’s Hristijan Mickoski in Ohrid, focusing on transport links, energy connectivity, and joint border crossings. Security & Media: Reporters Without Borders urged transparency around ANN’s sale, warning opaque funding could affect editorial independence in the Balkans. Wildfires & Climate Pressure: Wildfires across Greece, Spain and France kept emergency services under strain, while Europe’s heatwave also pushed Danube water levels to record lows. Danube Fallout: Low Danube levels exposed a WWII Nazi warship wreck near Prahovo, Serbia, highlighting risks to shipping and energy cooling. China-Serbia Military Ties: Chinese embassies, including in Serbia, marked the PLA’s 99th anniversary with Serbian officials attending. UFC Belgrade: UFC’s first-ever Serbia event is set for August 1 at Belgrade Arena, headlined by Uroš Medić vs Daniel Rodriguez.

Serbia-U.S. Energy: The U.S. extended a sanctions waiver for NIS, letting the Russian-owned oil firm keep importing crude and run Serbia’s only refinery until Aug. 28, as OFAC licensing talks continue amid low Danube levels and a pending MOL-Gazprom stake deal. Regional Diplomacy: PM Djuro Macut met North Macedonia’s Hristijan Mickoski in Ohrid, stressing growth in transport, rail upgrades toward Greece, energy connectivity, agriculture and tourism, plus joint border crossings. Energy System Under Strain: Macut said Serbia’s electricity supply is stable but urged rational consumption during a prolonged heatwave and extremely low water levels, with hydro generation under pressure. Media Freedom Watch: Reporters Without Borders urged transparency over the planned ANN sale, warning opaque funding could tilt editorial independence in the Balkans. Kosovo War-Crimes Probe: Investigators in northern Kosovo launched urgent exhumations after human remains were found in a suspected mass-grave area linked to wartime kidnappings. International Politics & Law: In the U.S., Trump repeated baseless claims blaming Minnesota’s governor for cyberattacks on water systems; separately, the Paramount-Warner Bros antitrust fight heads toward a court schedule clash between trial dates sought by companies vs. state AGs. Pressing Serbia-Linked Narrative: Media experts warned Russia is borrowing Serbian narratives in North Macedonia, including influence over the Macedonian Orthodox Church’s stance on Ukraine.

Elections Watch: Serbia’s Green-Left Front says it will back the general election ticket nominated by the student movement, framing it as the best route to restore democracy, rule of law and Serbia’s European path. Election Integrity: ODIHR recommends a full-capacity election observation mission for Serbia, citing polarization and practical problems around media and equal campaign conditions. Government & Parliament: PM Đuro Macut’s cabinet survived a no-confidence vote in parliament, with opposition accusing the government of failing to tackle corruption as an early election is expected in the autumn. Kosovo Tensions: In Pristina, a court opened the trial of 21 people over the 1999 Racak massacre, while another Kosovo court move requires Orthodox pilgrims from 1 August to be accompanied by a Pristina-licensed guide—seen as a new pressure point on Serbs. Diplomacy: UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed concluded a working visit to Belgrade, announcing scholarships for Serbian students and reaffirming a deepening comprehensive strategic partnership with Serbia. Human Rights: Republika Srpska’s Supreme Court upheld discrimination findings against Bosniak children over how “Bosnian language” was marked in school documentation.

Danube Drought Crisis: The Danube hit record lows in Budapest, dropping to 31 cm then 26 cm, disrupting shipping, tourism and exposing sandbanks and even shipwrecks—Serbia is also bracing for knock-on effects as heat and drought persist. Kosovo-Serb Property Pressure: Serbian FM Marko Đurić says Pristina’s demolitions, illegal works near Visoki Dečani and new barriers against pilgrims show a deliberate pattern targeting Serb rights and religious freedom, urging EU/OSCE/KFOR to act. UAE-Serbia Strategic Push: President Vučić met UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed in Belgrade, highlighting economic cooperation, renewable energy, scholarships for Serbian students, and EXPO 2027 participation. Parliament & Governance: Serbia’s government survived a no-confidence vote, while opposition continues to challenge the cabinet and press for voting-roll transparency. EXPO 2027 Planning: Vučić presented Serbia’s EXPO 2027 vision to the UAE leader, framing the event as a platform for innovation and new partnerships. UFC Belgrade Politics-in-Sport: UFC boss Dana White faced backlash over a viral remark at the Belgrade press conference as the first UFC event in Serbia approaches. Regional Heat & Power Risks: Serbia’s drought is already affecting fuel imports and energy production, with authorities warning of worsening conditions and wildfire risk.

Kosovo Tensions: EU urged Serbia and Kosovo to avoid statements that obstruct normalization after President Vučić again said Kosovo is part of Serbia, warning dialogue is the only route. Parliament & Government: Serbia’s parliament rejected an opposition no-confidence motion; PM Djuro Macut said the cabinet’s work will be judged by results, not “unacceptable tones.” Kosovo War-Crimes Case: Pristina ordered 30 days’ detention for two Serbs suspected over alleged 1999 war crimes tied to excavation of a suspected mass grave near Zubin Potok. Regional Diplomacy: Serbia and Albania agreed in principle to open consular offices in Shkodra and Bujanovac. UAE-Serbia Ties: UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed arrived in Belgrade for a working visit welcomed by Vučić, underscoring deepening cooperation. Energy & Climate Shock: Record-low Danube levels are disrupting shipping and cooling for power plants; Hungary cut output at Paks and Romania shut Cernavoda reactors amid heatwave warnings. Agriculture: Serbia reports a new African Swine Fever outbreak across multiple districts, with emergency measures in nine municipalities. Security Incident: Police investigated an armed robbery at a licensed marijuana grow operation in Belgrade, where a couple was tied up and marijuana and cash were stolen.

Parliament & Elections: Opposition MPs used the no-confidence debate to accuse President Aleksandar Vučić of planning a comeback as prime minister, while the ruling majority said no decision has been made yet. Kosovo Tensions: Serbia’s defence committee chief Milovan Drecun warned that Pristina is “intimidating Serbs” through war-crimes cases and property seizures, while Kosovo’s war-crimes institute released figures for the 1998–99 conflict (12,230 killed, including over 1,000 children). Foreign Policy & Diplomacy: Marko Đurić told MPs that responsibility and unity should guide the government debate amid tight room for political error; Serbia also held bilateral consultations with Azerbaijan, with renewed focus on energy, infrastructure and culture. Energy & Climate Impact: Serbia braces for a second heatwave as drought drives Danube levels to historic lows, disrupting shipping and hydropower; officials say electricity supply remains stable but output at the country’s biggest hydropower plant has fallen to about one-third. Local Land Use: A land trust is fundraising to buy Belgrade’s Camp Bomazeen (nearly 300 acres) to prevent new development. International Security Pressure: EU and US moves are described as synchronized pressure on the “autocratic axis,” with sanctions targeting major Russian oil and gas buyers.

U.S.-Serbia Strategic Dialogue: Serbian defence MP Milovan Drecun says Washington is treating Belgrade as its key partner in southeastern Europe, praising Serbia’s “independent policy” and neutrality while stressing red lines on alliances and Kosovo. OSCE Pressure Campaign: U.S. Congressman Joe Wilson backs a push to move the 2027 OSCE Parliamentary Assembly from Serbia to South Carolina, citing alleged Russian, Chinese and Iranian influence and arguing Serbia’s energy dependence is too deep. Parliament/Foreign Policy: Marko Đurić told lawmakers that “responsibility and unity” must guide the no-confidence debate, warning Serbia has little room for political error amid geopolitical pressures. Energy & Infrastructure: Serbia commissioned about 61 MW of solar in H1 2026, but grid-connection delays remain a bottleneck; meanwhile Deputy PM Ivica Dačić chaired an emergency response over record-low Danube levels and risks to the Danube-Tisa-Danube hydrosystem. EU Media Standards Row: The EU warned Serbia and Montenegro over reciprocal journalist entry bans, saying restrictions clash with membership-candidate expectations. Regional Diplomacy: Serbia and Azerbaijan held bilateral consultations, reaffirming cooperation in energy, infrastructure and culture. Sports Politics: FIFA’s plan to create a $20bn subsidiary and sell stakes drew sharp UEFA criticism over governance and transparency. Public Life: Belgrade hosted a UFC delegation ahead of the Aug. 1 Fight Night at the Arena, with tickets reportedly sold out in 22 minutes.

Diplomacy Appointments: Serbia’s Council of Ministers approved new ambassador postings, including Spain’s new envoy to Serbia and other regional appointments tied to EU and NATO-facing diplomacy. EU-Media Standards: Brussels warned Serbia and Montenegro over reciprocal journalist entry bans, saying restrictions on media work clash with EU candidate values after Montenegro barred Informer editor Dragan Vučićević and Serbia retaliated. EU Path Debate: In parliament, Minister for European Integration Nemanja Starović argued the government is pushing Serbia’s EU membership forward, citing a sixth European Commission recommendation for opening Cluster 3. No-Confidence Politics: Opposition MPs pressed a no-confidence motion, while debate continued over whether the cabinet is moving Serbia closer to EU membership. Hydrology & Energy Security: Deputy PM Ivica Dačić chaired an emergency response meeting on record-low Danube levels, urging continuous monitoring and coordinated action to protect the Danube-Tisa-Danube hydrosystem and water supply. Wildfire Solidarity: Serbia sent firefighters and a helicopter to Spain after Madrid requested EU assistance, with operations focused near Madrid. Kosovo War-Crimes Case: Kosovo detained two suspects over alleged 1999 war crimes in Mitrovica; Serbia and the Serb List condemned the move as intimidation. Belgrade Labor Pressure: Vucic promised Apoteka Beograd staff 16 unpaid salaries within 45 days, after arrears reportedly reached about RSD 900 million. Gold & State Reserves: Zijin Copper said it sold 17 tons of gold to Serbia’s central bank since 2019, reinforcing national reserves. Regional Security Pact Warning: Albania’s foreign minister urged Serbia not to use security cooperation involving Albania, Kosovo and Croatia to expand military or raise tensions. Sports & Public Life: Lin Dan joined EXPO 2027 Belgrade brand ambassadors, while football and combat sports coverage dominated the broader week’s headlines.

No-Confidence Politics: Serbia’s opposition says the ruling coalition scheduled a motion of no confidence only now—claiming it’s timed to kick off the election campaign and is meant as a “display of power,” while Socialist Party leader Ivica Dacic calls the debate an “ordinary political performance.” Election Timeline: Dacic also says the Socialists are ready for both parliamentary and presidential elections, with candidate nominations expected over the next month. Belgrade Arena Cash Allowances: Prosecutors opened a case after N1 reported cash payments to people recruited to attend an SNS rally, with a preliminary investigation underway. EU Media Pressure: The European Commission expressed concern over reciprocal journalist entry bans between Serbia and Montenegro, warning such restrictions clash with EU values for candidate countries. Diplomacy & Disaster Response: Deputy PM/Interior Minister Ivica Dacic said Serbia’s firefighters will assist Spain with wildfires after Spain accepted a Serbian helicopter and ground crew. AI Cooperation: Serbia is among countries backing the new World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organisation (WAICO), framed as a Global South platform for AI governance and capacity building.

EU Accession & Institutions: Serbia named Ljiljana Jevtovic deputy chief negotiator for EU talks, after PM Djuro Macut’s July 23 decision, with Danijel Apostolovic already set as chief negotiator. Domestic Politics: In parliament, MPs began debate on a no-confidence motion against the government, with PM Djuro Macut saying the cabinet “fully deserves” the vote and arguing it should be judged by results, not politics. Public Finance & Elections: RFE discussed Vučić’s promised €600m one-off cash relief for pensioners, vulnerable groups and veterans, raising questions about budget rebalancing, debt and whether the money is being used to sway voters. Foreign Policy & Security: Serbia and China pledged deeper cooperation in AI, green technology and innovation at a Belgrade conference, signaling a shift from traditional industry ties toward “data mining.” Regional Security: Bulgaria’s security agency warned that Russian and Chinese arms buildup in the Western Balkans could destabilize the region. Culture & Diplomacy: Serbia signed a contract for CERN’s participation in EXPO 2027 in Belgrade, while BELEF announced concerts at Princess Ljubica’s Residence from 29 July to 13 August.

No-Confidence Showdown: Serbia’s National Assembly has started debating the opposition’s no-confidence motion against PM Djuro Macut’s cabinet, tied to the “General Staff” affair; ruling figures say the motion will fail, while if it passes (or the PM resigns) a 30-day process for forming a new government kicks in, with snap elections looming if no new majority is formed. Elections Calendar: President Aleksandar Vucic signaled presidential polls could land in late December/January depending on when parliamentary elections are held, keeping the political timetable front and center. NIS Sanctions Talks: Vucic said there’s “a little bit of optimism” on NIS amid US sanctions, noting OFAC licence extensions and aiming for a deal by late September. US Trade Pivot: Vucic announced the US has temporarily lifted 35% tariffs on Serbian goods, with rates dropping to zero then settling around 10–12%. ASEAN Diplomacy: Foreign Minister Marko Đurić reported Serbia met its goals in Manila—securing Southeast Asian support on sovereignty issues and pushing participation talks for Expo 2027 Belgrade. Integrity Push: BIRODI urged amendments to the anti-corruption law to separate state functions from party roles and strengthen the independence of the anti-corruption agency. Water Crisis: Record-low Danube levels are disrupting shipping and energy supplies, with Serbia’s fuel imports hit by reduced barge and tanker capacity.

ASEAN Diplomacy: Serbia’s foreign minister Marko Đurić wrapped up a Manila push saying all ASEAN Summit goals were met, with renewed backing for Serbia’s territorial integrity and talks on Expo 2027 participation, plus meetings with Chile and Timor-Leste. Anti-Corruption Reform: BIRODI urges amendments to the Law on the Prevention of Corruption to separate state functions from party posts, strengthen integrity rules, and boost the independence of the anti-corruption agency. Election Timeline: President Aleksandar Vučić says presidential elections could come late December 2026 or by early February 2027, depending on parliamentary timing, while also signaling a prime minister bid in the October/November parliamentary vote. Governance & Trust: A democracy-focused survey finds Serbians back democracy in principle but distrust how it works, with student-led protests still holding strong support as a potential political alternative. Public Integrity Debate: Think tank calls for a legal ban on public officials holding party roles while in office, tying it to preventing misuse of public resources. Energy Pressure from Nature: Low Danube water levels are cutting output at Djerdap 1 to about one-third, while fuel imports are also hit, forcing barges and tanks to run at reduced capacity. Civil Society & Rights: Serbia’s LGBTQ+ community faces an “epidemic of violence,” with activists warning protection is inconsistent. Aviation Safety Fallout: A Serbian passenger nearly sucked out of a Ryanair window says the airline only offered rebooking and did not directly check on him after the July incident.